The Populism Propensity Score (PPS) predicted support for populist candidates and parties in seven out of eight regression models estimated from survey data from France, Austria, Germany, and The Netherlands (base and full models for each country). In Austria, PPS was statistically and substantively significant predictor of support for the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) in both models. A standard survey measure of populism (SSMP), tested in the full model in Austria, was not significant. SSMP was also not a statistically significant predictor of support for populist candidates or parties in any of the full models developed for the four survey countries.
The key drivers of support for FPO in the fully specified model in Austria include: PPS, ideology, resentment of Muslims, age, education, respect for Austrian traditions, lack of trust in government, and antipathy toward the European Union (EU integration has gone too far).
In the base model, the higher an Austrian voter’s PPS, the more likely the voter was to support the FPO. Variables estimated in this model include ideology and PPS, as well as a wide range of demographic variables including age, gender, education marital status, religiosity, employment status, pride in being Austrian, the number of generations a respondent’s family have lived in Austria, and whether the respondent was born in Austria. Only PPS, ideology, age, education, and the number of generations a respondent’s family lived in Austria were significant in predicting support for FPO.
In the full Austrian model, PPS once again predicted support for FPO. A standard survey measure of populism (SSMP) included in this model did not. Variables estimated in this model included ideology and PPS, as well as several other variables that proved to be important drivers of the outcome of the Austrian election. These variables were resentment of Muslims, respect for Austrian traditions, lack of trust in the Austrian government, antipathy toward the European Union (EU integration has gone too far), education, and age. The R-square of the full model – a measure of how well an observed vote for FPO is represented by the model --- was .822 with an adjusted count of .433, indicating a very strong fit.